Euromaidan: a side effect of a big geopolitical game or a new Revolution?

On 21st November, the Ukranian Cabinet of Ministers unanimously decided "to stop the process of preparation for the signing of the Association agreement" (AA) between Ukraine and the European Union. This decision caused spontaneous protests in the capital of Ukraine, Kiev. After some protests were hashtagged as #Euromaidan the name was appointed as a general tag for protests all across the country. The Euromaidan started in the evening of 21 November and was broken down by the units of special-purpose police "Berkut" on 30 November.

Ukraine's situation cannot be resolved without multilateral talks

Ukraine's occidental foreign policies have always attracted much controversy. There is no unanimity on this issue in public opinion either. Yet, the decision of Ukraine's government shocked a great part of the population, while people in favor of a closer Russian cooperation were certainly satisfied. Earlier, President Victor Yanukovich announced his willingness to sign the AA, but it seems that Russia succeeded in changing his mind. Sometimes, the situation around Vilnius looked like a battle game with Ukraine trapped between choosing Russia or the EU. The problem is that while both Russia and the EU are interested in winning Ukraine's favour, the negotiations about the integration processes have never been held simultaneously with Russia and the EU. Though, Ukraine could hardly take a decision, without being influenced by one or the other major international power. In order to find a solution which could satisfy both Ukraine, the EU and Russia, intelligent, multilateral talks would be indispensible.

Does Euromaidan justify an EU intervention?

Euromaidan shows that the traditional diplomatic game – which Ukraine is quite familiar with – may have been enriched by a new dimension. The current demonstrations show that a new political actor is emerging inside the country. More than 300,000 Ukrainians showed that they do not agree with government officials and that they demand the AA to be signed. Taken into consideration that an important number of Ukrainians made it clear that they are in favor of an EU cooperation, the latter may have the right to express a stronger opinion about what is happening in Ukraine. Of course, the EU could also opt for a more conservative option: respect the decision of a sovereign government and say: “we made a proposition to you, you refused it and that is all”. But after the demonstrations and especially the events that ocurred on 30th of November, when the police cracked down peaceful protests, the EU may want to implement measures against Yanukovich's disregard of civic rights and liberties.

Real obstacles to EU accession

However, we should not forget that Ukraine is far from becoming a member of the EU. The country’s fundamental problem is its poorly performing economy. For the past three years the economy has stagnated.(On the other hand, the economic situation within the EU is not simple either.)

Also the Eastern Partnership has not been a major priority of the past years. France, Italy and Spain preferred to make steps in favor of a Southern Neighborhood.

However, there are some encouraging signs, such as the approach of Poland and Lithuania. These EU Member States are fully devoted to cooperating with their Eastern Partners. The increasing level of eurosceptisism within the EU is also a negative sign which would hardly motivate Ukrainians to push for accession. Finally, even if conditions for an AA were not very hard to fulfill, the “now-or-never” language from the European side made the process of negotiations much more stressful. Why are we “now-or-never”? We speak about an important strategic decision and the EU shouldn’t consider Yanukovich as the sole actor in EU-Ukrainian relations forever.

Ukraine is at the crossroads of interests of both Russia and the EU and any integration process in the region cannot be solved without participation of all actors. In respect of massive protests in Kiev and high level of involvement of Ukrainians in this issue, EU shouldn’t consider Yanukovich’s decision as a definitive choice on behalf of the whole country.